• ABOUT US
    • Vision & Mission
    • The Programs
    • Projects & Activities
  • INSIGHTS
    • INITIAL THOUGHT
    • Leaders
    • Experts
    • Industry
  • Future Watch
  • Media
    • Activities
    • Infographic
    • Magazines
    • Book Club
MyForesight
  • February 21st, 2019
  • ABOUT US
    • Vision & Mission
    • The Programs
    • Projects & Activities
  • INSIGHTS
    • INITIAL THOUGHT
    • Leaders
    • Experts
    • Industry
  • Future Watch
  • Media
    • Activities
    • Infographic
    • Magazines
    • Book Club
MyForesight
  • ABOUT US
    • Vision & Mission
    • The Programs
    • Projects & Activities
  • INSIGHTS
    • INITIAL THOUGHT
    • Leaders
    • Experts
    • Industry
  • Future Watch
  • Media
    • Activities
    • Infographic
    • Magazines
    • Book Club
  • Follow
    • Facebook
Superforecasting : The Art And Science Of Prediction
Home
Media
Book Club

Superforecasting : The Art And Science Of Prediction

ISBN-10: 0804136696 

ISBN-13: 978-0804136693 

Author: Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardne 

Publisher: Crown

 

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters.”

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecastingoffers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

 

 

 

Please follow and like us:
Next article The Silo Effect : Why Putting Everything In Its Place Isn't Such A Bright Idea
Previous article Advanced Technology in Physiotherapy and Rehabilitation

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Recent Post

Industry 4.0 and Smart City Integration from the perspective of Mobility

Industry 4.0 and Smart City Integration from the perspective of Mobility by | Mohamad Azreen Firdaus Abd Aziz, azreen@might.org.my | Mahalil Amin Abdul... Feb 16th, 2019 inFuture Watch

Autonomous vehicles challenges in mobility

Autonomous vehicles challenges in mobility by | Mohd Hasan Mohd Saaid, hasan@might.org.my Over the past 5 years, Artificial Intelligence... Feb 15th, 2019 inFuture Watch

Autonomous vehicles: The technology’s architecture, engineering and other technology enablers

Autonomous vehicles: The technology’s architecture, engineering and other technology enablers by | Norsam Tasli bin Mohd Razali, norsamtasli@might.org.my | Nur Amira Muhammad,... Feb 15th, 2019 inFuture Watch

Changing paradigms from automotive to mobility

Changing paradigms from automotive to mobility by | Vivek Vaidya Vivek Vaidya is an Associate Partner and Senior Vice President with the Frost... Feb 15th, 2019 inINSIGHTS

The energy of the mobility of the future

The energy of the mobility of the future By | Arij van Berkel Arij van Berkel leads Lux Research’s Energy Transition program.... Feb 15th, 2019 inINSIGHTS

Fast and furious : A race for the future of mobility

Fast and furious : A race for the future of mobility by | Christopher Robinson  As a Senior Analyst at Lux Research, Chris covers the technologies... Feb 15th, 2019 inINSIGHTS
  • ABOUT US
  • INSIGHTS
  • Future Watch
  • Media
  • Back to top

myForesight® is a pioneering national level initiative dedicated to the prospecting of technology for business through the field of Foresight. It provides a common Malaysian based platform for the Government, Industry and Academia to share experiences, insights and expertise on the strategic futures issues, both at the local and global levels.

Malaysian Foresight Institute
MIGHT Partnership Hub,
Jalan Impact
63000 Cyberjaya,
Selangor, Malaysia
Tel: +603 8315 7888

myForesight ® 2019. All rights reserved.
Produced by myForesight ®