BY Dr Ahmad Ibrahim

The 21st century is one of rapid change and globalisation. The pace of change is accelerating. It is imperative that leaders and management must understand its implications and promise. In a world of pandemic change, it is all too easy to be caught unprepared. Preparedness is always the key to success in a fast changing world. Those who can create and predict the future, as well as operate in it with confidence and knowledge, are the winners. Understanding the future of technology and its impact now has become a must for any critical planning. It is even more urgent given the fact that the product cycle from basic discovery to mass marketing and replacement with an even better model, has shrunk from 40 years in the past to six months or less.

Leaders in business, government and universities need foresight as a strategic instrument of planning. This is because they often take big bets on the future. They have to manage risks. Armed with reliable foresight predictions, leaders will be better able to plan ahead. There are many ways to anticipate the future. We can collect a lot of data, weigh them carefully and make a wild guess. Or we can try to identify trends in global affairs and project where they will lead.

Or we can use the oldest technique of all, ask an expert, just like what the Greeks did more than 2000 years ago where they consulted the oracle at Delphi. There is confirmed evidence that we are moving to a more populous world that is largely industrialised and intelligent, but that also poses unprecedented risks of environmental damage, energy shortages, climate change, weapons of mass destruction, and other threats. The global population will reach eight billion by 2030. What kind of scenarios will emerge in the future? How will such scenarios impact on a country like Malaysia? Will there be threats? Will there be economic opportunities?

Malaysia has for years been using science and technology to create wealth and provide socio-economic well being for the country. Ever since the introduction of the IRPA R&D funding during the fifth Malaysia Plan till now, the exploitation of R&D outputs for wealth creation has been dismal. Much remains locked up within the confines of universities and research institutes. Innovation has been a big disappointment. Despite the establishment of the relevant institutional support infrastructure and funding to motivate innovation, the innovation performance has been disenchanting. Many experts have offered views explaining the failures. New strategies have also been promulgated in revised plans and policies. But effective implementation has been the other challenge.

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